WAR ON TERROR

Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates

By DAVID CLOUD and NICHOLAS KULISH, Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence officials believe that four countries besides the U.S. possess stockpiles of the smallpox virus, fueling the already furious debate over the Bush administration's long-awaited vaccination policy.

A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox. He said that the agency's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Center had a high level of certainty -- based on both historical data and more recent intelligence information from defectors and other sources -- about Iraq and Russia having stockpiles of the virus, but that analysts were less certain about North Korea.

The official wouldn't describe the evidence suggesting that France, a U.S. ally, has the virus. The news that France is on the list could be an embarrassment for the Bush administration amid tense negotiations with France and other United Nations Security Council members over a possible war with Iraq. The intelligence report was described in Tuesday's Washington Post.

The report adds to the pressure faced by the Bush administration to decide how broadly smallpox vaccine should be offered to the U.S. population. Officials must balance the potential danger of an attack against the negative effects the vaccine itself can cause.

Much of the evidence that Iraq has the pathogen comes from evidence found during U.N. weapons inspections in the early 1990s that the country was pursuing smallpox as a weapons program. U.N. inspectors examining Iraqi medical facilities discovered an industrial-size freeze dryer, the type used by microbiologists to extend the life of germ samples, that was labeled in Arabic "smallpox machine."

Iraqi officials claimed the freeze dryer was meant for the smallpox vaccine, not the virus. A 1994 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that both Iraq and North Korea sought and received smallpox technology from the Russians in the early 1990s.

The CIA also found evidence in Afghanistan that al Qaeda was seeking smallpox for possible use as a biological agent. "We think it is unlikely that al Qaeda actually has smallpox, but that doesn't mean they don't still have an interest in trying to get it," the U.S. intelligence official said.

It remains to be seen whether publication of the report will increase pressure to vaccinate more members of the U.S. population in advance of an attack. Officials noted that the information already had been circulated internally. For months, Bush administration officials have been locked in a debate over how many people should be offered the vaccine. Vice President Dick Cheney is said to be in favor of a broader vaccination campaign, but health advisers are pressing for a more conservative approach, phasing in voluntary vaccinations by starting with emergency health-care workers.

"The United States is concerned that countries other than the U.S. and Russia have stockpiles of smallpox, but I can't comment on any intelligence," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the White House Office of Homeland Security. He noted, however, that the nation has stockpiled enough vaccine for the entire population should an attack occur.

Health experts estimate that the smallpox vaccine would cause life-threatening reactions in 15 of every one million people inoculated, and one to two deaths per million. Arguing against vaccination prior to any bioterror attack, some health experts said a vaccination campaign could be mobilized quickly after any outbreak occurs. National security experts tend to want to vaccinate more people sooner, arguing that it would reduce U.S. vulnerability and make it a less-attractive place to release the virus.